Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Rushaments

"If Hyper-Turbos are the crack of online poker & live NL cash = paint dry, then FullTilt's Rushpoker is mainlining pure essence o' Redbull with a Wagner paint gun."
- Not-so-Anonymous Live Donkey Rationalizationaments, Jan 2010

PLO CrystalMeth edition just arrived on FTP, so far just $0.10-$0.25.

Looks like Stars won't be offering anything like this soon, I hope they change their minds about this. Might have made the Elite run closer to doable.


So if anyone is wondering why I typically look like someone ready to poke out his own eyeballs when I play live, maybe stats from my online sesh today will help:
- 4 tables of TAG Rush PLO play for just over an hour (VPIP = 20%)
- 1,002 hands, raised pre-flop a moderate 113 times
- Not a lot of play / action / decisions, only got to see 182 flops in the hour
- Ran below expectation and only got AAxx 22 times.

So yeah, I ran 10-15% below expectation for an hour, got Aces 22 times (which are kinda fun to play), and went to showdown 40 times.

Not that it would take much longer playing live NL, you can expect to see Aces 22 times almost every time you put in a modest 7 1/2-day straight session without sleep! So there's that.

Another fun way to look at the Live NL Play ThrillOMeter: if I play CrackamentRushPLO for 10 hours today, I'll see an average of 250 hands with Aces. If you play live holdem 40 hours/week for a year, you have nearly a coin flip shot at seeing that many AA preflop by the end of 2010, so that's pretty exciting too. Wheeeee!!!!!


Executive Summary:
I might like Rush poker more than live cash games.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Warning: Whiny Content


Just trying to break even & run up VPPs to get this freaking Stars $2k bonus -> Nam-style flashbacks of my ill-fated SNE Run. Seriously, WTF?

No more tourneys, no more poker-related email, no 2+2, no Cake Gold Stack fun, no poker anything except PokerStars cash game VPP grind until I get this albatross of a 200k VPP bonus off my ass.

Oh, and SuperNova probably out for 2010. Why? Because fuck them and their 14-buyin below EV downticks in a week, that's why.

Friday, October 30, 2009

2009 in (way early) Review

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

tossing a bucket of water onto the donkament heater

Just in case i was starting to feel a little too good about myself or how i'm playing, luckily I played like an unreal donk the last 2 nights to come back to mediocre-to-lameass-playing earth.

- 3rd in chips out of 6 remaining in an uber-soft Cake satellite giving away 3 seats, decided to open-shove for 14BBs from the button with 43o. why, i cannot say, but I got what I deserved and busto.
- With a healthy above avg stack in Cake rebuy with 80/250 left, i check-raise shoved a button raiser on a QT4 board with 66 when I was pretty sure he had a decent hand Again, I don't know why, but justice was served and busto.
- I managed to get all my money in bad in PLO FTP donkament not 1 or 2x, but 3 by sucking out the 1st 2x before my suicide attempts finally worked.

Poker gods were obv punishing me for the latest series of brag posts, so I'll go nack to noticing how much I usually suck & maybe the upticks will resume.

Man was that fun to run like Harp in short-handed minbet for a week. I made more final tables over 7 days than I had all year.

Maybe online donkaments + live cash are the new staples, I dunno.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

lol comebackaments

Email #1 - me to Pat 4pm
(he had 20% of me in a $55 Cake bounty tourney that started at 3pm)

seriously can i run any fking worse in these cake donkaments?

here's the grossness
Cake hand link
(started hand with above avg stack 8,527 in chips, 4-bet squeezed a smooth caller with AQ, he snappo-called for 7k with KJo, and I ended the hand with 319 in chips with blinds at 50-100 & all ramped up for my tilty air shove for 3BBs)


I made a little comeback in that same tourney though...

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Sat, Jul 25, 2009 at 8:50 PM
Subject: Tournament Prize Detail
To: jaypoker@coskie.com
Congratulations Sloppo,
Out of 310 players in Tournament 5787865 ($15,000 GUARANTEED BOUNTY!!), you came in 3rd and have won $1,085.00.
Best wishes,
The Cake Poker Team

nice sweat on coin flip for 350k pot (total of 900k in play in tourney)
Button opened for 40k, I 3-bet shoved with 66 into AdQd, flop 3 diamonds :( turn 6 : river brick, waah waah busto)

That was sick, sick fun

Friday, July 24, 2009

Heater uptick

Yeah, Splasher's a lock for the Cake rebuy Hall of Fame.

I have to say it does not suck to have friends who have entered some sort of Zen-like state of poker almost every night over an extended period, especially when they're generous enough to swap big pieces with you during the heater. Thanks, Pat- pressure's on now for me to make a deep run the WSOP ME with Horner at age 50 so I can fire a huge piece at you. I'll let him fill in details on his last run in his blog, but last night he put on a fun show.

Here's a visual representation of our chops this week

On the pro front, the results are in - I blow chunks at live poker in virtually every form. Ship the live poker win rate for 2009 of, wait for it, $3.75/hour. Sadly / pathetically, this is a huge improvement from the negative rate a couple of months ago. Also I cannot for the life of me avoid playing and/or running like crap in every bubble situation I climb my way into on Cake.

But apparently, if I swallow my ever-shrinking pro pride and plunge waaaaaaaay down into Donkey Stakes Land, it looks as though I crush the Omahaha-8 droolers. Think I'mam I running any good in my last dozen or so omahaha donkaments (at least the ones with buy-ins you can drum up shaking out in your couch cushions or returning SmarteCartes at the airport for 15 minutes) ?

Date Tournament Game Buy in Entries Rank Prize
23 Jul 09 No Limit Omaha Hi/Lo OLNL $5.50+ 218 2 $665 (2-way choppo)
20 Jul 09 No Limit Omaha Hi/Lo OLNL $5.50+ 178 7 $139
19 Jul 09 No Limit Omaha Hi/Lo OLNL $5.50+ 62 24 $0
19 Jul 09 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo OLPL $5.50+ 752 4 $812
19 Jul 09 No Limit Omaha Hi/Lo OLNL $5.50+ 276 14 $65
18 Jul 09 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo OLPL $5.50+ 635 57 $25
13 Jun 09 No Limit Omaha Hi/Lo OLNL $5.50+ 120 17 $56
13 Jun 09 No Limit Omaha OHNL $5.50+ 54 3 $209
06 Jun 09 No Limit Omaha Hi/Lo OLNL $5.50+ 126 22 $0
17 May 09 No Limit Omaha OHNL $5.50+ 70 22 $0
14 May 09 No Limit Omaha OHNL $5.50+ 57 14 $0
08 May 09 No Limit Omaha OHNL $5.50+ 61 1 $459

Monday, July 20, 2009

Heaterama

In today's beat the dead horse department, Cake donkaments are delicious. Pat has been absolutely crushing- cashing in 1/2 and hitting the final 1 or 2 tables a handful of times just this week. Sloppo & theSplasher vs. The Droolers $30 rebuy & bounty matches are playing nightly on Cake at 9 & 10pm, join in the LAGtardic fun.

After a mind-numbingly scary month of nightmarish thoughts ala "ohmygodifidontstartwinningihavetoupdatemyresumeohgoditburnseshelphelphelp", I went on a nice donkament bender-heater combo Sunday.

Over 12 1/2 hours Amy's tiny laptop screen was filled with rotating tourney chaos. Some stats:
- Donkaments:20 (Cake - NL, FullTilt - PLO, PokerStars - PLO8, Bodog - NL)
- Plates of food + cups of coffee delivered to couch or counter by my folks: double digits (I think I owe my Mom a cut for the poker-friendly environment)
- Breaks over 10 seconds long: 0 (donkaments don't really care how many cups of coffee you had, ship the constant laptop companion in the bathroom)
- Cashes: 7, Final Tables: 4, $s: +$2,400 woohoo!


DonkaQuiz

1) Play along at home & test your Hellmuth factor

FTP, final 3 of PLO/8 tourney...

1st = $2,000
2nd = $1,300
3rd = $1,000

Villain who bets turn is pretty decent, but could show up with a lot of hands other than nuts/set

a) So what's your turn play, call or fold?
This assumes the best play is not available (i.e., go back in time to stop yourself from stuffing in chips with air on the flop).
http://www.pokerhand.org/?4490681

For those of you who are on some Big Brother at Work server and can't see poker stuff, Villain bet enough to put us all in on turn & we have between 11 to 15 nut outs, plus 6 more cards that improve our hand & could possibly win.

b) OK, let's pretend you somehow knew Villain holds T987 for one lame-ass pair plus a semi-wrap and 2 diamond blockers, now what do you do?

Turns out it doesn't matter at all what you do as far as EV goes, even with 19/40 cards on turn to win and take huge chip lead or 21/40 to bust out in 3rd.

When you stuff the payouts & chip stacks into this ICM calculator:
EV of Tourney Equity if fold: $1,355
EV of call if win (~48%) $1,760 + $1,000 payday if lose (52%) = EV of call $1,351

c) Now that you know you'd be paying $4 to participate in a $750 coin flip vs roughly comparably skilled opponents, would you fold or call? (Although Villain did call a flop pot-sized bet with ten high and a draw to a draw, wtf? How did I lose to this donk?)

Basically I think this question tests whether you're Phil HellMouth and would fold a draw with correct / 0 EV odds to dodge variance & play it out OR would you decide to leave it up to the gambool poker gods?

Shocker, but I tanked then did the Blackjack dealer clap-handwave combo, embraced the variance, & stuffed it in. I'd like to believe I called thinking it was a solid +$EV play but um, yeah, that's pretty much delusional. More like ship the wonkin' coin flip wheeeee....


2) Who's the bigger spewMonkey, me or Villain?
CakeSpewHand

Thursday, June 25, 2009

LAGtard amylouwho, extra slices o' cake

My budding donkament prodigy wife Amylouwho took down the nooner at Mohegan today to bring home a stake for me to bring to AC tomorrow (about $1k) - woohoo!

I haven't gotten the full debrief yet, but based on early reports, it sounded like it was a giant non-stop pile of her grabbing free chips with naked aggression, with lots of grumpy people folding like beaten dogs and muttering about how many good hands she keeps hitting. I guess they look at her chips firing over & over, glance at her tidy little outfit & hand sanitizer and get a-scared she must have a hand every time (she didn't).

Oh Barney Frank, pave the way for Charlotte to win her college tuition at Harrah's Online Poker Emporium between baby-sitting jobs, she's got some gambool gene potential.

PSA - Cake tourney overlays have gotten pretty ridiculously good.

Since Lee Jones joined, they have shortened the late registration times but kept the same guarantees (at least for now). Satellites into these things are still way soft (both cash & gold card). As a benchmark, I'd say probably 2x the softness with way more people utterly clueless about bubble strategy vs. the FTP 1800 point 1-table SNGs for $26 tokens.

2 examples from tonight:
- $20k gtee with $100 buy-in -> 152 people = $5k overlay ($30 per entrant)
- $25k gtee $30 w/ R&A -> just 232 buyins, 250 rebuys with 180 left just before break, so likely a nice overlay there too

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Marathon Session trip report

Well it turns out I'm not the only one reading the occasional short bust of blog production, so here's a blow-by-blow of a grind it out session from tonight...

As midnight rolls around, I've fired up ESPN, surfed 2+2, and lined up the remote-beverage-snack combo, and start thinking I'd better oh I don't know, play some poker today

Sit right in with $100 at only open seat on $2-$4 Bodog PLO table & post in cutoff. (Yup, I know, Sloppo = short stack weenie buyin boy. I usually top off after a lap or two, I'm not really that soft.)

Kd Jc 9c 6d, five limpers to me (yup, 5 of em), I check, button & SB calls, all is right with the world.
Big Blind ruins the party by bumping it up $12 - callcallcallcallcall, I mutter jackass but I call so just 7 or 8 of us nits see the flop
Satan's lives! 6 6 6
Guy to my right insta-fires for $40, and despite being uneasy about my dream Number of the Beast flop, I decide I shouldn't to make the big (but questionable) laydown with my quads and I call. The oh-so-generous BB not only overcalls the flop but sweet sassy molassy even my tank-then-not-shove-the-river bet of $36 too (yup, I did the uber-ridiculous AdamLambertesque "oh I'm so weak, see look I'm leaving $10 behind because I'm afraid you have quads and I don't" tank-bet drama, but hey, it worked).

As the BB starts blinking and I start bouncing up & down chanting rhythmically "call call call" I notice that the turn & river of 2c & 3c actually made a straight flush possible. But no, this is not a trip report of the most Evil slowroll in history, so ship the strong call with QQ to the BB & the 3-hundo pot to me.

I immediately wonder if it's gonna get any damn better than that for a session, as in ever. Seriously, who am I to ruin a win rate of over $10k or maybe $100k+ per hour? Poker gods/demons threw me a bone here and all. So I insta-sit out with a nice little $200-something uptick after 90 seconds of work (yeah, it's a grind), spark up another drink & ESPN360.com to watch live streaming of Barry Greenstein playing the $10k PLO event for a couple of hours. (OK, I did collect my free Sklansky bucks and play around to my Big Blind. But hey, I'm a serious, disciplined and dedicated professional, here.)

I've had worse days as a pro than this I think.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

poker karma awol

A couple o' good beats:
- trusty iPhone has now survived its trips to the toilet and the bottom of my water glass A-OK
- up to 451 miles as of 1st day of summer
- just finished 2nd in PLO donkament for just under $1k

Here's where poker karma gods screwed the pooch, with chip leader in this hand being A #1 Tool
Pretty surprised to see my pair o' 2's was good on turn here...
oops

donkament winner then typed "LOLOLOLOL you fell into that like the cheap hooker you are with your skirt all hiked up"
nice
ah where was the karma?
pretty psyched about the score tho, since Father's Day will now be a guilt-free day of noooooooooo poker

Friday, May 15, 2009

A Variance Haiku

Ah, the Slop he thought
"Ship me half a huge split pot?"
But Cake, it did not...
It's a comin'


Amylouwho, may all you flops be as tasty as
THIS

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Donktastic finish to $5 donkament

I did play better than this for the 1st 5 hours, really I did

I'm a comin' :)

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Sloppy Poker 2009 Part 2 Update (aka Escape from Stars Hell)

My less exciting, lounge and diamond-card-free update follows...

Summary for the rushed and/or not-so-interested
Post-PokerStars Elite grindy life is better. You know, with less painful angst and non-stop losing and stuff. Non-Stars hourly win rate actually not too far off my 2008 rate -> glimmers of hope for no jobamant (please oh please let the Saving Heater find me)

Oh, YTD mileage = 350
Hey! Mr Math just gave me some great news related to my mileage tally folks! If someone gave me just $2 into my PokerStars account for every mile I've logged, I'd be up nearly 7 bucks there for the year! Wow, not too shabby. And some of you thought 20-tabling against regulars might not be a good idea. Ha!


lol donkaments

Just bounced out 5th in Cake $33 rebuy for $1,500 as of 2:45am Wed. I think I agree with Mark's comments after he busto'd 6th for $1,600 - 1st and $1,000s more might have been a smidge more satisfying. Yeah, I'd say self-destructing this late after chugging 4 cups of uber-strong coffee then some tea on top to stay sharp is less than optimal.

Here's a link to my stupid? unlucky? brain-dead / cursed? gambool from SB. (Backdrop: I was tied for shortstack with 12% of chips in play, and BB had raised ~50-75% of hands pre-flop since we got to 6-or-7-handed including shoving on me from BB once or twice. FWIW my image was likely pretty weak-tight-nitty from a combo of being card dead at FT & working up payday ladder without seeing too many floppos.)

OOOOOOOOPS

To be fair, even though I'm sad / hating myself for the bust-out hand, any cash I got above $167 was pure LuckBox-flavored gravy since I got ~98% of my stack in oh-so-bad with QQ vs Villain's KK but (Imacomin!) hit 2-outer on flop to survive and dodge finishing ~30th . Also moving up to 4th was worth $500, I was trying to keep my eye on the $5k pop for 1st more than 1 more notch up. Like Vanessa Rousso says, I made the Agressive Call here.

Over/under on how long after I wake up & how many times I see visions of that sweet hand replaying in my brain tomorrow? How's 3 1/2 seconds and 27. (Pssst, parlay the under then the over for the W.)

Also, nice job by me failing to bet on the Celtics 2 games in a row to avoid winning $s from dramatic 4th quarter comebacks. nh,wp,tlaHRm (nicehand, wellplayed, thatslameassHomerRollmanagement)



PokerStars - FPP->$s

For May, 3 FPP -> cash items in VIP store at max value. 500 FPPs->$8, 1k FPPs -> $16, 16k->$160. Nice ways to continue to empty the Stars FPP vault and reduce the pain.

I look at my Jan-March log and feel sad, confused & more than a little brain dead when I ponder the 952 hours played averaging 18 tables there as a not-quite-break even-after-rakeback-added "pro". Good times.



FullTilt - Ah sweet, sweet cash

Western Union added as a Withdrawal option. Trip report: 2 cash outs for $200 each, 36-72 hour turnaround, Amy picked up cash no problemo at a RiteAid spot 2 miles from our house. (The only problem is the stress of worrying I might forget to declare cash withdrawals next April. I'm losing sleep nights.)

PLO Games are so-so mostly with some bright spots, but better than Stars I think.

I dipped my toe into Fullring NL some more there. Kind of sort of a little bit fun I guess, probably because I ran better than I played. I did uptick a couple of buyins but obviously more important: ship the FullTilt Academy points tally upticks (FTPA points, now with new Warm Tingly sensation of Achievement flavored with pennies of value!)



Cake - good karma in my 2nd go-round there

Randomly noticed quite a few overlays for guaranteed prize pool donkaments (e.g., $30 rebuy $25k guarantee had ~700 buyins)

What's cooler than cash flipaments? Cake Kamikaze donkaments - everyone forced all in every hand, most fun way to spend 60 seconds online I can think of. I have a pro-like ROI in them so far - "Out of 143 players in Tournament 5196544 ($3 - Kamikaze Tournament!), you came in 8th and have won $15.44"

PLO, PLO/8 NLO/8 games are a bit sparse, but occasionally nice & juicy. My playing style has ranged by the hour (& beat) from NITtyMcNit to LAGSpewTard, but I've run up my $110 rakeback payment I used to seed the account up to ~$450 in May while generating $160 more in rakeback due June 1st.

Emailed Cake I had server problem after raising to $6 preflop (brace yourself, I was playing $3-$6 minbet O/8), called $3 dark postflop because a Cake server message blocked the flop on me, then got booted from table on turn.
Obviously I expected FullTilt style response plan 1) After a random amount of time, receive "we got your email" stock reply 2) 2-3 days of radio silence 3) Copy & paste email saying something relevant like "Your Iron Man points were correctly credited for play in June 2007. Please visit www.fulltiltpokeracademy.com for details, or refer a friend and receive $50!" Got a response from Cake in 30 minutes saying "we didn't detect any server problems, but we credited you $18 for the inconvenience."


Bodog - Overlays, occasional juicy juicy

Noticed some overlays in Guaranteed prize pools here too.

PLO games sometimes uber-TAG (30% <20bb class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">oooooooooh PartyPoker pre-UIGEA PLO / PLO8 games with 50-60% flops and 50-100BB avg pots. If dubhead or blaz1992 is
playing, have a seat. Seriously.

Rakeback available, and you can use Bodog Poker Points to play in SNGs to get T$s.



Absolute - wha?

I know what you're thinking.... "Cereously? Absolute?" Cereus network puns are fun.
Anyway, I fired $70 in rakeback payment to re-seed account. Pretty sure most of the 2+2 / multi-tabling TAG-pro crowd is gone from there, so I may just see how games are.

In all Cereusness, I know the track record there and UB is uber-shady. but I think for any online site, being concerned / paranoid that
1) we might be cheated
2) we might or have our accounts hacked
3) the Kewanakeekookoo gaming commission is useless / corrupt
4) they might never pay us
is just part of an EV calculation.
If a site is populated with cheaters and/or bots but I'm winning, then meh.


Reward for the dedicated, unemployed or bored at work who made it this far

NSFW but if you've seen Silence of the Lambs, you'll either laugh hard or think I'm a sick puppy for finding this funny. Worth clicking, really.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

For the Welcome Back Suckouts...

...we play at Full Tilt Poker
aaaaah this felt nice
(good thing you smooth called the flop and checked the turn, sir. wpnh)

Link to Bodog bet against the Lakers promo
Ship the $50 action on Celtics to win $175 with refund if Lakers win- anyone want a piece?

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Degree All In Moment

5 1/2 hours into Stars $70k rebuy donkament
14th / 43 left, 1st = $12k, 43rd = $132, anything below final 2 tables = crapola $s

Table LAGtard raises for 9,433rd time in last 2 orbits, so ship my first all-in to go to showdown...
Somehow I think cosmic justice was probably served here
Click here to witness as Jay grows tired of LAGtard stealing his thunder and goes wacko

Save us Tony G...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtE5Hx740Pc

Sunday, April 5, 2009

I try to get out, but they keep sucking me back in....

All those NittyMcNitNovaEliteGrinderProLifeVampires slowly draining the soul and bankroll out of me at Stars can go suck it, I'm on Stars cash game sabbatical for a while.
FTP's $600 bonus bribe worked - fired $600 on today using eChecks so I'm back on Tilt for a bit.

Good times at Mohegan yesterday The life of a VideoPoker semi-pro is a good one.

Pat, not trying to torture you here, but maybe you can borrow a quiet FTP account for a while or fire up one in your Mom's to play in these miniFTOPs? I can also see you & I getting addicted to accruing Academy points.

1) Have any of you guys signed up to do any of these Academy challenges? Looks like their ridiculous, but basically a freeroll right?
http://academy.fulltiltpoker.com/challenges/

2) Per FTPDoug on 2+2, FTP points can be used to buy some weekly donkaments & ALL miniFTOPS events 5/7-5/17

I'm going to be splashing in lots o' these - anyone who wants to do some chops email me.

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/mini-full-tilt-online-poker-series/schedule

$750K Guarantee ($216, Sundays at 18:00)
The Double Deuce ($22, Sundays at 16:22) - 4,400 pts
The Daily Dollars ($1 rebuy every day at 15:15, $1 freezeout every day at 20:15) - ship the donkey shoves for 200 pts

3) I'll probably be qualifying & playing in the freerolls to win a WSOP ME seat.
Since I've failed to grab us a Palms Suite at 2010 via NovaElite, you guys are all freerolling for a piece of me when I win one

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Good beat for a change - Jayco is dead, long live amylouhoo

Apparently my Jayco account being Doomswitched was the only real problem.
I guess I should have made NovaElite run as Amylouhoo since that account's LuckBox is not old, tired, and cranky.

Sustainable ROI?
amyloohoo SuperGodMode account stats
(If yes, life will be good)

Oh, and check the time stamp. Now I remember why I stopped playing $10 donkaments that start after 11pm. So sleepy.

Brag #2:
My wife gets some pretty epic birthday presents from the Slop. You can expect to see Amy sporting a snazzy new Snuggie in our next home game. You know, come to think of it, I have never failed to crush a donkament when wrapped up in a Snuggie. Hmmm... think the Rio allows them during the WSOP ME? (I'm sure Foxwoods has banned them as a combo fire hazard / electronic cheating device.)

From: PokerStars Support <support@pokerstars.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 29, 2009 5:35:24 AM
Subject: Results for PokerStars Tournament 149950348

PokerStars Tournament #149950348, Pot Limit Omaha
Buy-In: $10.00/$1.00
162 players
Total Prize Pool: $3360.00
Tournament started 2009/03/28 23:15:00 ET


Dear amylouhoo,

You finished the tournament in 1st place. A $772.80 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

You earned 255.92 tournament leader points in this tournament. For information about our tournament leader board, see our web site at http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/tournaments/leader-board/


Congratulations!

Thank you for participating.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Just to make it official...

Barring a miracle and/or sudden, massive softening of the Stars games, SNE chase for 2009 is officially Busto.

I'm at 164k VPPs (75% of 220k to be on pace) and burned out struggling to mega-multitable / not-quite-break even in mediocre-at-best Stars games. After a few hours playing live PLO tonight at Mohegan, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the avg $0.25-$0.50 PLO player on Stars crushes tonights $1-$2 lineup, and except for one good player we ran into, $0.05-$0.10 PLO players would hold their own. Really. Live PLO & PLO8 = juicy. Ah, if only they'd spread double-board.

On an up note, ship the lopsided deal for Mohegan donkament - 3-way chop today. What's that sir? Will I take $1,500 of the $4,900 prize monies as the shortest stack with oh maybe just maybe 20% of chips in play? Yes, yes, I think I will. Math is fun.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Fat lady's clearing her throat

First, the good news.

After bottoming out a week or so ago stucko for the year over $2k (yes, this included all rakeback / FPPs, etc.), this Happy Hand helped spark a comback.

Who's the Big Winner? Jay is!

YTD Results (including FPPs):
+$14 WOOHOO!
156k VPPs (84% of pace)

Now rather than dwell on the fact that I'd be up more $s if I had returned one 12oz can deposit per hour that I played poker, I am feeling damn good to be out of the Bad Place of being a net loser.

But I think odds oI'm going to make SNE are low and dropping. I could make ~750k on my own I think, but unfortunately Harp's seen just how awful the 6-max lol-min-bet games are on Stars, so that's not a profitable or fun place for a Shill to grind out the VPPs. (Think 4 or 5 SNE grinder-TAG-pros per table).

I can't say the PLO 6-max games are much better, and playing the # of tables I need to play to get the required 500 VPPs/hour, I'd be beating the game if it was rake-free, but sadly, it's not.

So I'm playing basically every full-ring PLO game running from $100-to-$400-max available (ranges from 6 to 12), earning 250-400 VPPs/hour, and basically managing to break even. I think I may even be squeaking out a small edge, which combined with not running 23,739,456 std deviations below avg on all-in luck has created a few upticks lately.

What this means barring some kind of intervention, revelation, or me sucking less at the pokerz is that a more realistic target is more like ~600-700k VPPs. I'll finish March and maybe 1/2 of April playing 100% on Stars. At some point I'll need to think if mixing in some Tilt, Cake, etc is more profitable. Maybe we can create Team Sloppy to McGuyver a brilliant solution using nothing but PT data, a minivan, 1 Dong cable, and a 5-hour drive to AC in April?