After a mind-numbingly scary month of nightmarish thoughts ala "ohmygodifidontstartwinningihavetoupdatemyresumeohgoditburnseshelphelphelp", I went on a nice donkament bender-heater combo Sunday.
Over 12 1/2 hours Amy's tiny laptop screen was filled with rotating tourney chaos. Some stats:
- Donkaments:20 (Cake - NL, FullTilt - PLO, PokerStars - PLO8, Bodog - NL)
- Plates of food + cups of coffee delivered to couch or counter by my folks: double digits (I think I owe my Mom a cut for the poker-friendly environment)
- Breaks over 10 seconds long: 0 (donkaments don't really care how many cups of coffee you had, ship the constant laptop companion in the bathroom)
- Cashes: 7, Final Tables: 4, $s: +$2,400 woohoo!
1) Play along at home & test your Hellmuth factor
FTP, final 3 of PLO/8 tourney...
1st = $2,000
2nd = $1,300
3rd = $1,000
Villain who bets turn is pretty decent, but could show up with a lot of hands other than nuts/set
a) So what's your turn play, call or fold?
This assumes the best play is not available (i.e., go back in time to stop yourself from stuffing in chips with air on the flop).
For those of you who are on some Big Brother at Work server and can't see poker stuff, Villain bet enough to put us all in on turn & we have between 11 to 15 nut outs, plus 6 more cards that improve our hand & could possibly win.
b) OK, let's pretend you somehow knew Villain holds T987 for one lame-ass pair plus a semi-wrap and 2 diamond blockers, now what do you do?
Turns out it doesn't matter at all what you do as far as EV goes, even with 19/40 cards on turn to win and take huge chip lead or 21/40 to bust out in 3rd.
When you stuff the payouts & chip stacks into this ICM calculator:
EV of Tourney Equity if fold: $1,355
EV of call if win (~48%) $1,760 + $1,000 payday if lose (52%) = EV of call $1,351
c) Now that you know you'd be paying $4 to participate in a $750 coin flip vs roughly comparably skilled opponents, would you fold or call? (Although Villain did call a flop pot-sized bet with ten high and a draw to a draw, wtf? How did I lose to this donk?)
Basically I think this question tests whether you're Phil HellMouth and would fold a draw with correct / 0 EV odds to dodge variance & play it out OR would you decide to leave it up to the gambool poker gods?
Shocker, but I tanked then did the Blackjack dealer clap-handwave combo, embraced the variance, & stuffed it in. I'd like to believe I called thinking it was a solid +$EV play but um, yeah, that's pretty much delusional. More like ship the wonkin' coin flip wheeeee....
2) Who's the bigger spewMonkey, me or Villain?