Sunday, February 15, 2009

Beat, Brag, or Variance?

Is this a good fold here?

Yes, this is a trick question.
See if you can figure it out before hints...

Hint #1: I nominate this particular fold as a potential new Champion Laydown which may supplant the one Harp & I witnessed on the Mohegan Tek tables.

Summary of that Epic Fold was something along these lines:
4 people left in SNG, top 3 pay. Perhaps brain-damaged or possibly just very kind-hearted & generous woman with short stack of say T1,050 (avg = ~5k) antes & posts BB, but when the SB raises her an additional, wait for it, T50, she folds. Yes, she put in 95%+ of her stack in the BB then folded on the bubble.

My fold, um, probably worse on a few levels.

Hint #2:
Would it be a good fold if someone walked by and dropped a bag of money filled with 1,100 $1 bills onto the table to go to the winner before the hand started? Because if it would still be a good fold when getting implied odds of >1,100-1 for that oh-so-precious dollar I decided not to invest, then yeah, it was a good fold.

Hint #3:
Hand number might have ended in 000,000.

Yup, I folded for $1 UTG in a milestone hand. Oooooooh how it burnses.
SuperNovas get $550 if they lose a milestone hand, $1,650 if they win it.
But only if they aren't mega-tabling and FREAKING NOTICE THE CHAT BOX.

So yes, winning $550 was definitely way cool.
I will say I didn't reaaaaallllly enjoy it as much as I would have if I hadn't folded. The railbird chat was not kind.

Now accepting nominees for name of folds for a buck getting over 1,000-1 odds (The MilliSlop?)

I may feel a twinge when I wake up tomorrow and remember I clicked the Fold button.
On the other hand, ship the LuckBox activation maybe? Please?

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Stars 25B promo - robofoldo Sat anyone?

Stars page

- 25% reload bonus up to $250, clearing requirement = 20 VPPs / $1 bonus, 6 months to clear
- $s given away every 1M hands starting tonight (until Sat)
- $250,000 giveaway to 1 table for hand # 25,000,000,000

Anyone interested in doing the robofold thing again? Prize would be bigger than 10B promo - $250k chopped 6 ways if we hit.

No real clue on our chances, but if I had to SWAG it I'd say odds of hitting would be somewhere from 200-1 to 2,000-1. I'll try to better estimate our chances if it looks like we might be able to get 6 people together again.

hit supernova today

feel the excitement.

First, the grim stats update:

A sick bone-crushing the 1st week of February brought my YTD results to below $0. Yup, that does includes the FPPs. Ship the losing Pro.
YTD total = -$313
FPPs = 102k (91% of SNE pace)
Miles = 110

The possible glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel:

I reached the end of my rope Sunday playing & running like complete crap ($3k from bad/losing play, $3.5k more from all-ins below expectation, obv I did something evil to P.O. the poker gods). So I decided I needed to force myself to kick the testosterone up 3 notches and play SloppyAngry or not at all. I even watched a few Cardrunners videos to help psych myself up for a) no more short-stack weenieness, b) no more wimpy-wimpy-open-limpy, c) WAY more 3-jacking in position

I guess I succeeded in ramping up the aggro...
Stats in PLO 6-max for 1/1-2/7: VPIP 22.2%, PFR = 3.0%, Agg factors 0.14/5.6/5.3/7.4
2/8-2/10: VPIP 18.4%, PFR = 10.0%, Agg = 1.1/8.1/6.5/5.7

I can't say the transition to opening up the aggression pre-flop's and FIRE FIRE FIRING relentlessly with c-bets in position has gone 100% smoothly. I absolutely positively SPEWED chips most of Sunday, Monday, and this morning.

But it has started to feel like maybe my brain has opened up a few cracks occasionally to let some light in. Like tonight as my robot hand was auto-reaching to rapid-click the pot button when checked to, I had radical 6-th level thoughts come to me like "hey, I could actually check behind sometimes in a 4-way raised pot with 7654 when it flops AKQ, can't I?")
I kid you not, I'm actually UP $200 (in Sklansky AND real money $s) over my last 4,000 hands

Cute little illusion: This game rebuild is like Tiger rebuilding his swing after winning 10 majors to take it to the next level.
Reality: I'm more like the guy on The Biggest Loser who gets winded pumping his fist wilidly because he just dropped a monster 20 lbs to weigh in at 480.

But you gotta walk before you run, and I think full-stack with aggro at least has some chance at getting me closer to at least break-even poker with this many tables. I also ramped down the # of tables from 15-18 to 10-14. This feels like it boosts my chances of playing a bit better. I'm falling behind SNE pace, but for now I'd rather focus on not bleeding my roll to death, I can add tables later if I get back to not losing 99/100 sessions.

Actually I think maybe I have the formula for max tables I can manage without DeathMonkeySpew... 4 x # of coffees downed in last 2 hours.

Amy back from Vegas any minute. My quick summary of her trip...
She & my sister where strong Coupon-Nits-in-training for +$80, supplemented by complete uber-nitty food bankroll management including, wait for it, a 2 for 1 buffet at the IP. Oh amylouwho, even a coupon nit has to set limits, so sad. She went 0 for 4 in donkaments with 1 bubble & 1 other final table out of money, but +$800 on cash games. Nice to see 1 Coskie doesn't suck.

Check out this email she sent me...
"If only I were playing at the Orleans..
Got all my money in with middle set against overpair and top set-I lose. Turn quads- I win! River makes bigger quads- I lose. Would have been 80k bad beat jackpot at the Orleans. :-("

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Some good news (this is irony-free, I promise)

Well I guess there are more of you reading than who show up as official registered blog followers, so I'm going to keep up the self-therapy via the bloggydoo for a bit longer anyway.

I do hereby self-decree that whiny graphs & bad beat stories are verboten for a while, so from now on nothing but 100% pure think-HappyThoughts-post-HappyThoughts all day every day. (Which means if you see no updates for a while it's probably not because I'm crushing Ivey at the Thunderdome table.)

On to the good news.
Not sure if any of you saw this alert from the PPA a few days ago..

"Recently, State Representatives Brian P. Wallace, Martin J. Walsh proposed HR 3954, a bill that seeks to expand casino gambling in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. This bill also includes a proposition that would make it a crime for you to play poker on the Internet (See: Section 18(j)(lines 1446-1453) Under this provision, online poker players will be subject to a maximum term of 2 years in the house of correction, a fine of $25,000, or both. Ironically, HR 3954 is pro-casino gambling legislation, yet it makes Internet gaming a crime. This is an unacceptable double-standard!"

I called both Reps offices and had a good time ranting, not-too-artfully hammering out the phrases "stay-at-home Dad" and "hypocritical" at least 3 or 4 times each. No surprise probably, but I enjoy the occasional wallowing around in and spewing self-righteous indignation.

Anyway, now the cool part... after being pounded with calls & emails, Rep. Wallace's office sent out this email yesterday:
"The section was inadvertantly added to the bill. I am going to move to strike the entire section about internet poker. Sorry for the confusion
Brian Wallace"

Rep who responds in a pro-gambool way to phone beatings >>> Rep who can spell "inadvertent".
So now we can officially root conflict-free for the MA Casino gaming bill (you know, the one that Harper assures us will bring oodles of VPIP 80% tables, scantily-clad women bringing us Red Bull and free snacks, and the repeal of the UIGEA)

A good day. :)
I even cracked triple digit miles today, ship the 100 mile tally

YTD results before tonight's massive uptick:
Net Total with FPP value added = +$116 (hey, it starts with a "+", so it could be worse)
VPPs 91k (92% of pace)

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Fresh start, Ship the new month, wheee....

I am a freaking artist- check out Feb 1st EV graph...

Oh how I wish this was a joke. I'm pretty sure my ears were on fire during the last 2 all-ins that went less than happily.

YTD running tally of Luck Box = $3,031.98 below expectation on all-ins. (The 98 cents is the part that really hurts.)

Maybe I just need more cow bell?
Yeah. Obviously I need play my next session listening only to songs with cowbell. Never ran below expectation one time that I can remember when Don't Fear the Reaper was playing, so I think this is a good plan.

Look for a strong update soon once I've made a solid Cowbell playlist. Assuming my head doesn't explode before then.