Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Fat lady's clearing her throat

First, the good news.

After bottoming out a week or so ago stucko for the year over $2k (yes, this included all rakeback / FPPs, etc.), this Happy Hand helped spark a comback.

Who's the Big Winner? Jay is!

YTD Results (including FPPs):
+$14 WOOHOO!
156k VPPs (84% of pace)

Now rather than dwell on the fact that I'd be up more $s if I had returned one 12oz can deposit per hour that I played poker, I am feeling damn good to be out of the Bad Place of being a net loser.

But I think odds oI'm going to make SNE are low and dropping. I could make ~750k on my own I think, but unfortunately Harp's seen just how awful the 6-max lol-min-bet games are on Stars, so that's not a profitable or fun place for a Shill to grind out the VPPs. (Think 4 or 5 SNE grinder-TAG-pros per table).

I can't say the PLO 6-max games are much better, and playing the # of tables I need to play to get the required 500 VPPs/hour, I'd be beating the game if it was rake-free, but sadly, it's not.

So I'm playing basically every full-ring PLO game running from $100-to-$400-max available (ranges from 6 to 12), earning 250-400 VPPs/hour, and basically managing to break even. I think I may even be squeaking out a small edge, which combined with not running 23,739,456 std deviations below avg on all-in luck has created a few upticks lately.

What this means barring some kind of intervention, revelation, or me sucking less at the pokerz is that a more realistic target is more like ~600-700k VPPs. I'll finish March and maybe 1/2 of April playing 100% on Stars. At some point I'll need to think if mixing in some Tilt, Cake, etc is more profitable. Maybe we can create Team Sloppy to McGuyver a brilliant solution using nothing but PT data, a minivan, 1 Dong cable, and a 5-hour drive to AC in April?

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